Cambiamenti climatici, come sarà il Mediterraneo fra 100 anni
Il Mediterraneo è stato al centro di uno studio condotto dall’Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) e dal Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), in cui vengono monitorato le sue condizioni fino a fine secolo. A pubblicarlo la rivista Biogeosciences. L’area su cui si avranno maggiori ripercussioni è l’Adriatico
Lo studio evidenzia due scenari di riferimento, la cui differenza è molto evidente: uno mediano (RCP4.5) e uno peggiore (RCP8.5). Il più positivo prevede un taglio di emissioni e quindi una stabilizzazione della CO2 atmosferica intorno a circa 500 ppm. Il secondo, simula una crescita ininterrotta di concentrazione di CO2 nell’atmosfera fino ad arrivare a 1200 ppm. La perdita d’ossigeno si attesterà su una percentuale compresa tra il 2 e il 9%
Altro punto analizzato è l’acidificazione. In entrambi gli scenari i primi 30 anni presentano valori uguali. La situazione cambia dopo la metà del secolo: nel primo caso il pH rimarrà stabile, nel secondo decresce rapidamente.
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